Report by Eugene Chen, Flora McCrone and David Mozersky. Published together with the Stimson Center as part of the Powering Peace initiative.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
South Sudan’s future – and relief from its cycle of conflict – is linked to its reliance on fossil fuels, with limited but possible options for charting a new course. The world’s newest country gained independence in 2011 amid international fanfare, yet the celebrations were short-lived, with the outbreak of civil war in late 2013 bringing devastating consequences for the population. South Sudan’s energy sector is deeply embedded in the dynamics of the conflict, from the economy’s near total dependence on oil production and the accompanying patronage systems to the reliance on imported diesel for access to electricity. Creative solutions could help South Sudan break this cycle, and in at least one area – renewable energy – unique opportunities exist for the government and its international and national partners to support the development of a new, more sustainable, and widely accessible electricity infrastructure.
This report looks at the question of electricity access in relationship to South Sudan’s conflict and the unique options to help harness renewable energy as a tool for peace and development across the country. South Sudan is the least electrified country in the world; according to the World Bank, only 7.2 percent of the population has access to electricity. The recent civil war destroyed most of the existing limited electricity infrastructure, including the few projects that had been developed in the immediate pre- and post-independence periods. In Juba, there has been some modest progress in expanding electrification in the capital, but effectively nowhere else. Despite being an oil-producing state, South Sudan has no domestic refining capacity. Virtually all access to electricity comes from generators that rely on imported diesel. This energy dependence requires hard currency, which is a drain on the government’s limited cash reserves. To reach end users, the distribution of diesel fuel and other goods must pass through dozens of checkpoints manned by various armed groups across the country, adding costs for security and access. The result is that this reliance on diesel fuel, and by extension the access to electricity, is a core component of the country’s fossil-fuel dependency and economy. A weak economy and volatile currency further hampers investment in electricity projects, creating a situation where there is little progress in advancing energy access in South Sudan, and little reason to expect the status quo to change.
One possibility for South Sudan’s electricity sector is to work with the energy transition objectives of the United Nations (UN) Secretariat, which present new and unique opportunities to unlock a series of clean energy projects across the country. This approach is also a creative way to support peacebuilding. Since
2005, the UN has had a peacekeeping mission in what is now South Sudan, with the current iteration, the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), deployed since independence in 2011. The mission is one of the largest in the world, with an annual budget of $1.12 billion as of July 2022. With a presence across most of the country, UNMISS is almost entirely dependent on diesel generators for power, spending approximately $32 million per year on diesel for the generators alone, and representing roughly 20 percent of total electricity consumption in the country. In support of the climate goals set out in the UN Secretariat Climate Action Plan (UNSCAP), the mission has stepped up its efforts to look at renewable-energy solutions for its field bases. UNMISS aims to partner with private sector solar developers through power purchase agreements (PPAs), contracts that, through a mission’s commitment to purchase energy at an agreed price and term, enable project developers to finance and build power plants. This approach leverages the purchasing power of the UN and could potentially unlock new projects in South Sudan. For example, the mission recently issued a request for information for a PPA-driven solar project in Malakal to meet its own power requirements, with the potential to eventually expand to cover other off-takers, including local communities. The mission has also initiated a pilot solar project for its Tomping base in Juba. UNMISS is looking to replicate these projects elsewhere where possible. In Rumbek, for example, the mission is initiating discussions to connect to the grid through a new government-led electrification project, but it is not yet clear how much of this project would include renewable energy.
Ideally the local population would also benefit from such projects as they come on line, but at the very least such projects should be able to serve local communities following the eventual departure of UNMISS and the transition of the UN configuration in South Sudan. The wider international community and national government must become partners to take full advantage of such arrangements.
KEY FINDINGS
The systems around fuel and fuel use for electricity generation are inextricably linked to the conflict dynamics in South Sudan. Electricity access is almost completely dependent on diesel and diesel generators. South Sudan exports its crude oil but must import its refined diesel. At every stage of the diesel supply chain, both money and diesel are diverted in vast quantities, with the result that the volume of available diesel diminishes while the price for the end consumer increases, with knock-on effects across the formal and informal economy. Corruption and extortion are seemingly inescapable in this sector, from the awarding of diesel contracts by the Government of South Sudan (GoSS), to the declaration of imports and payment of taxes at the Nimule border, to the middlemen in Juba and the transportation routes passing through dozens of armed checkpoints around the country, to the local diesel retailers across the country’s 10 states. UNMISS trucks are routinely stopped at checkpoints and import taxes are demanded, which seriously impacts the mission’s operations as the fuel needs to be transported to 10 field offices across the country. This contributes to the perpetuation of a status quo in South Sudan characterized by chronic insecurity, militarization, and stunted economic development.
Expanding electrification in the country beyond the capital is unlikely to change without new initiatives. Few international partners are focusing on energy access, and the GoSS has been unable to move forward outside of Juba. The 2018 peace agreement was primarily focused on ending the violent conflict. It therefore contains only minimal reference to the energy sector or the environment, and makes no mention of any development of renewable-energy infrastructure. The political and economic uncertainty, currency volatility, and lack of focus on expanding electrification means the status quo will remain unless something changes.
Investment in decentralized renewable energy can offer a new way to support peace in the country. Investment in decentralization would help decouple energy access from dependence on diesel, mitigating these negative externalities and supporting a wide range of development goals. For the communities that have been displaced for almost a decade and the urban areas that have been almost entirely razed by the fighting, the localized provision of renewable energy could be game-changing for their recovery, rehabilitation, and resilience.
UNMISS has made commendable progress in deploying renewable-energy systems. However, significantly expanding the mission’s energy transition will require engaging the private sector through power purchase agreements (PPAs) in order to achieve the kind of meaningful renewable-energy adoption necessary to fulfill the UN’s climate goals. PPAs provide the only realistic option for the mission to achieve these targets.
UNMISS’s efforts to transition to renewable energy present an opportunity to support the electrification of host communities in South Sudan. UNMISS’s purchasing power can be leveraged to catalyze new electrification projects across South Sudan, beginning with Malakal. The mission is currently focusing on internal inside-the-fence renewable-energy solutions with due consideration to its available dedicated resources, but this may be a missed opportunity given the lack of electrification in the country. The UN country team, in collaboration with international partners, donors, the GoSS, and potential investors, should work closely with the mission to maximize the unique opening presented by the UNMISS energy transition to expand the size and scale of UNMISS-initiated PPAs to also include electrification to local communities, or at the very least to ensure that arrangements are in place so that local communities can benefit from the electricity infrastructure developed as part of the PPA following the eventual drawdown and departure of the mission.
RECOMMENDATIONS
To UNMISS:
• Meet UN targets. The mission should articulate a coherent approach for UNMISS to meet its UNSCAP and environment plan targets annually, such as when it updates its energy infrastructure management plan.
• Track real costs. The mission should implement procedures to track all costs associated with diesel generators, including fuel amounts used, procurement and transport (including the opportunity cost of force protection and helicopter flights), generator procurement, and maintenance.
• Plan for the transition. As UN-owned renewable-energy infrastructure is likely to be handed over to the UN country team or to the GoSS when the mission draws down, the process for doing so needs to be coordinated with the UN country team as early as possible as part of transition planning.
• Stand up an energy working group. The mission and the UN country team should establish a dedicated energy working group to enhance coordination, which should be factored into both the business operations strategy and the mission-support concept. Cost-sharing arrangements and contract piggybacking should be pursued whenever feasible.
• Coordinate with partners and donors. The mission should coordinate its renewable-energy plans with bilateral donors and organizations such as the World Bank, which can support grid rehabilitation and connection infrastructure, to ensure that any commercial solar projects developed as part of PPA arrangements can eventually be interconnected.
To the UN Secretariat:
• Shift approach to energy delivery. With regard to procurement, the Secretariat should change the prevailing approach to assessing best value for money to take into account total life cycle costs and the ability of vendors to deliver. It should also recognize that the interest of the organization – which, along with best value for money, is one of the four principles for procurement enumerated in the UN’s financial regulations – should incorporate considerations such as UNSCAP.
• Make renewable energy the standard. Rather than treat renewable options as the exception to UN practice, shift to making renewable energy the standard to meet new electricity requirements in peace operations.
• Standard operating procedures should be developed that use the PPA as the default arrangement for large sites (whether inside or outside the fence), with UN-owned equipment (UNOE) arrangements through turnkey contracts (once available) for small sites. Templated statements of work should be made available to missions.
• The Department of Operational Support should develop a structured approach by which missions can assess the viability of all types of renewable energy (and not just solar), with associated turnkey options under systems contracts.
• Moderate the use of Contingent-Owned Equipment (COE) for improved efficiency.
• Rather than change COE generator specifications to include meters, missions should adjust fuel allocation procedures to require meters, which will be procured and installed at mission expense.
• UNOE should be used to meet electricity-generation requirements in all military and police camps and bases with a mission support presence. This is an option that UNMISS is pursuing, and should be applied across all missions. Major equipment COE generators should only be used for requirements during expeditionary deployment/in temporary operating bases or in locations without adequate mission support presence. The Office of Military Affairs in the Department of Peace Operations and the Uniformed Capabilities Support Division in the Department of Operational Support should adjust their
approaches to the development of statements of unit requirements, force generation, and negotiations of memorandums of understanding (MOUs) accordingly.
• Mission COE and MOU management review boards should regularly review existing generators for right-sizing based on actual consumption and alternative forms of electricity generation.
• Where power is provided by UNOE, military and police contingents should not be running their COE generators. Contingents should be clearly informed that generators do not need to be constantly running to qualify for reimbursement.
To the UN General Assembly:
• Meet goals with capacity. Instead of adding additional renewable-energy expertise and capacity in missions, additional expertise should be developed at Headquarters and at the Global Service Center, including through REACT, to serve as a resource to all missions.
To the UN Country Team, and International Donors and Partners:
• Coordinate with mission. Work closely with UNMISS and the host government to take full advantage of the UNMISS transition to renewable energy by preparing for, and providing funding for (as needed), the
following scenarios:
• First, to explore and be ready to support options for any private or government-led renewable-energy project.
• Second, be ready for piggybacking on UNMISS PPA project arrangements, in order to expand the size and scale of any renewable-energy project to also benefit communities from the outset of project design and implementation.
• Third, to work closely with UNMISS as early as possible to plan for the eventual handover of renewable-energy infrastructure or, in the case of PPAs, the relevant commercial contracts.
• Include peacekeeping transitions into long-term planning. International financial institutions and the African Development Bank should explore ways to incorporate the transition of peacekeeping sites in the long-term planning of energy infrastructure in South Sudan.
• Invest in solar. Invest in community solar installations for (former) PoC sites and IDP camps, with appropriate security to prevent theft and looting, recognizing their long-term presence.
• Promote minigrid development. Prioritize investment in and support for distributed solar minigrids in key towns and cities, beyond Juba, especially for use by essential public service institutions such as schools, universities, and hospitals.
To the GoSS:
• Link interests and plans. Establish an Electricity Sector Working Group with senior representatives from across different government departments (e.g., the Department of Energy and Dams, the Environment Ministry, and the SSEC) as well as key UNMISS/UN country team departments or positions (e.g., the climate security advisor) and other key international partners (e.g., the World Bank) to improve communication, build consensus, and generate momentum for public and private sector investment in renewable energy and the electricity sector.
• Improve governance of energy options. Strengthen renewable-energy-focused capacity at the Ministry for Energy and Dams so that it can effectively regulate and provide oversight on the energy sector, and support new distributed renewable-energy development, particularly outside of Juba.
• Promote public-private partnerships and provide legal support to foreign investors to help them navigate government regulations, and to mobilize additional resources for the energy sector.
• Set annual renewable-energy targets, as well as annual price ranges for electricity providers, and empower government agencies to hold providers accountable to those targets.
• Incentivize clean energy, especially solar, by allocating additional resources to help private sector players overcome prohibitive financing challenges and pivot toward renewable energy, particularly outside of Juba.
• Support the development of a skilled local labor force by investing in vocational training for the renewable-energy sector – for example, training local young people on the installation and maintenance of solar equipment.
• Formulate an electrification strategy to enable and reassure private-sector minigrid development.
• Develop regulatory framework to provide some standardization and predictability of tariffs and for solar products to ensure adequate quality and sustainability.
• Review and finalize the 2015 Electricity Law to develop a broad legal underpinning for the power sector, including the establishment of a transparent regulatory function and clear assignment of key sector responsibilities.
To the Private Sector:
• Look at economic options for engagement. Recognizing the potential value of UNMISS and the wider UN as a significant anchor electric power customer, energy retailers, independent power producers, and renewable-energy developers should actively identify feasible financial opportunities to invest in the
sector. Consider nearby clinics and educational facilities as additional viable core off-takers.
Read the full report here.